Outcomes

2024

Verónica Torralba, Stefano Materia, Leone Cavicchia, M. Carmen Álvarez Castro, Chloé Prodhomme, Ronan McAdam, Enrico Scoccimarro and Silvio Gualdi (2024) Nighttime heat waves in the Euro-Mediterranean region: definition, characterisation, and seasonal prediction Letter in Environmental Research Letters.

Abstract

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Andrea Castelletti, Andrea Ficchì, Andrea Cominola, Pablo Segovia, Matteo Giuliani, Wenyan Wu, Sergio Lucia, Carlos Ocampo-Martinez, Bart De Schutter, José María Maestre  (2024) Model Predictive Control of water resources systems: A review and research agenda.  Annual Reviews in Control, Volume 55, Pages 442-465

Abstract

Model Predictive Control (MPC) has recently gained increasing interest in the adaptive management of water resources systems due to its capability of incorporating disturbance forecasts into real-time optimal control problems. Yet, related literature is scattered with heterogeneous applications, case-specific problem settings, and results that are hardly generalized and transferable across systems. Here, we systematically review 149 peer-reviewed journal articles published over the last 25 years on MPC applied to water reservoirs, open channels, and urban water networks to identify common trends and open challenges in research and practice. The three water systems we consider are inter-connected, multi-purpose and multi-scale dynamical systems affected by multiple hydro-climatic uncertainties and evolving socioeconomic factors. Our review first identifies four main challenges currently limiting most MPC applications in the water domain: (i) lack of systematic benchmarking of MPC with respect to other control methods; (ii) lack of assessment of the impact of uncertainties on the model-based control; (iii) limited analysis of the impact of diverse forecast types, resolutions, and prediction horizons; (iv) under-consideration of the multi-objective nature of most water resources systems. We then argue that future MPC applications in water resources systems should focus on addressing these four challenges as key priorities for future developments.

 

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2023

Anastasiya Shyrokaya, Florian Pappenberger, Ilias Pechlivanidis, Gabriele Messori, Sina Khatami, Maurizio Mazzoleni  & Giuliano Di Baldassarre (2023) Advances and gaps in the science and practice of impact-based forecasting of droughts Water, e1698.

Abstract

Advances in impact modeling and numerical weather forecasting have allowed accurate drought monitoring and skilful forecasts that can drive decisions at the regional scale. State-of-the-art drought early-warning systems are currently based on statistical drought indicators, which do not account for dynamic regional vulnerabilities, and hence neglect the socio-economic impact for initiating actions. The transition from conventional physical forecasts of droughts toward impact-based forecasting (IbF) is a recent paradigm shift in early warning services, to ultimately bridge the gap between science and action. The demand to generate predictions of “what the weather will do” underpins the rising interest in drought IbF across all weather-sensitive sectors. Despite the large expected socio-economic benefits, migrating to this new paradigm presents myriad challenges. In this article, we provide a comprehensive overview of drought IbF, outlining the progress made in the field. Additionally, we present a road map highlighting current challenges and limitations in the science and practice of drought IbF and possible ways forward. We identify seven scientific and practical challenges/limitations: the contextual challenge (inadequate accounting for the spatio-sectoral dynamics of vulnerability and exposure), the human-water feedbacks challenge (neglecting how human activities influence the propagation of drought), the typology challenge (oversimplifying drought typology to meteorological), the model challenge (reliance on mainstream machine learning models), and the data challenge (mainly textual) with the linked sectoral and geographical limitations. Our vision is to facilitate the progress of drought IbF and its use in making informed and timely decisions on mitigation measures, thus minimizing the drought impacts globally.

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Barriopedro, D., García-Herrera, R., Ordóñez, C., Miralles, D. G., & Salcedo-Sanz, S. (2023). Heat waves: Physical understanding and scientific challenges. Reviews of Geophysics, 61, e2022RG000780.

Abstract

Heat waves (HWs) can cause large socioeconomic and environmental impacts. The observed increases in their frequency, intensity and duration are projected to continue with global warming. This review synthesizes the state of knowledge and scientific challenges. It discusses different aspects related to the definition, triggering mechanisms, observed changes and future projections of HWs, as well as emerging research lines on subseasonal forecasts and specific types of HWs. We also identify gaps that limit progress and delineate priorities for future research. Overall, the physical drivers of HWs are not well understood, partly due to difficulties in the quantification of their interactions and responses to climate change. Influential factors convey processes at different spatio-temporal scales, from global warming and the large-scale atmospheric circulation to regional and local factors in the affected area and upwind regions. Although some thermodynamic processes have been identified, there is a lack of understanding of dynamical aspects, regional forcings and feedbacks, and their future changes. This hampers the attribution of regional trends and individual events, and reduces the ability to provide accurate forecasts and regional projections. Sustained observational networks, models of diverse complexity, narrative-based methodological approaches and artificial intelligence offer new opportunities toward process-based understanding and interdisciplinary research.

 

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Monique M Kuglitsch, Arif Albayrak, Jürg Luterbacher, Allison Craddock, Andrea Toreti, Jackie Ma, Paula Padrino Vilela, Elena Xoplaki, Rui Kotani, Dominique Berod, Jon Cox and Ivanka Pelivan (2023) Environ. Res. Lett. 18 093004

Abstract

Earth observations (EOs) have successfully been used to train artificial intelligence (AI)-based models in the field of disaster risk reduction (DRR) contributing to tools such as disaster early warning systems. Given the number of in situ and remote (e.g.radiosonde/satellite) monitoring devices, there is a common perception that there are no limits to the availability of EO for immediate use in such AI-based models. However, a mere fraction of EO is actually being used in this way. This topical review draws on use cases, workshop presentations, literature, and consultation with experts from key institutes to explore reasons for this discrepancy. Specifically, it is the main characteristics, possible challenges, and innovative solutions for EO. Finally, it suggests ways to make EO more user-ready and to facilitate its uptake in AI for DRR and beyond.

 

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Rousi, E., Fink, A. H., Andersen, L. S., Becker, F. N., Beobide-Arsuaga, G., Breil, M., Cozzi, G., Heinke, J., Jach, L., Niermann, D., Petrovic, D., Richling, A., Riebold, J., Steidl, S., Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Tradowsky, J. S., Coumou, D., Düsterhus, A., Ellsäßer, F., Fragkoulidis, G., Gliksman, D., Handorf, D., Haustein, K., Kornhuber, K., Kunstmann, H., Pinto, J. G., Warrach-Sagi, K., and Xoplaki, E.: The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1699–1718,

Abstract

The summer of 2018 was an extraordinary season in climatological terms for northern and central Europe, bringing simultaneous, widespread, and concurrent heat and drought extremes in large parts of the continent with extensive impacts on agriculture, forests, water supply, and the socio-economic sector. Here, we present a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe, with a particular focus on Germany. The heatwave first affected Scandinavia in mid-July and shifted towards central Europe in late July, while Iberia was primarily affected in early August. The atmospheric circulation was characterized by strongly positive blocking anomalies over Europe, in combination with a positive summer North Atlantic Oscillation and a double jet stream configuration before the initiation of the heatwave. In terms of possible precursors common to previous European heatwaves, the Eurasian double-jet structure and a tripolar sea surface temperature anomaly over the North Atlantic were already identified in spring. While in the early stages over Scandinavia the air masses at mid and upper levels were often of a remote, maritime origin, at later stages over Iberia the air masses primarily had a local-to-regional origin. The drought affected Germany the most, starting with warmer than average conditions in spring, associated with enhanced latent heat release that initiated a severe depletion of soil moisture. During summer, a continued precipitation deficit exacerbated the problem, leading to hydrological and agricultural drought. A probabilistic attribution assessment of the heatwave in Germany showed that such events of prolonged heat have become more likely due to anthropogenic global warming. Regarding future projections, an extreme summer such as that of 2018 is expected to occur every 2 out of 3 years in Europe in a +1.5 C warmer world and virtually every single year in a +2 C warmer world. With such large-scale and impactful extreme events becoming more frequent and intense under anthropogenic climate change, comprehensive and multi-faceted studies like the one presented here quantify the multitude of their effects and provide valuable information as a basis for adaptation and mitigation strategies.

 

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Enrico Scoccimarro, Oreste Cattaneo, Silvio Gualdi, Francesco Mattion, Alexandre Bizeul, Arnau Martin Risquez  & Roberta Quadrelli (2023) Communications Earth & Environment

 

Abstract

Cooling degree days provide a simple indicator to represent how temperature drives energy demand for cooling. We investigate, at country level, the changes in cooling degree days worldwide in a recent twenty-one-year period starting in 2000. A new database, jointly generated by CMCC and IEA based on ERA5 reanalysis’ global gridded data, is used for the analysis. In contrast to the existent literature, the factors of population-weighting and humidity are considered, which affect the magnitude and the spatial distribution of these changes. Annual tendencies show a general increase of cooling degree days over the different countries, fostering more energy consumption for cooling demand, as confirmed by some regional studies. We also focus on the temporal clustering, to measure if peaks occur evenly random or tend to cluster in shorter periods. We stress that including humidity is important both for general tendencies and clustering. India, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam represent the emerging countries where this effect is stronger.

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2022

Sancho Salcedo-Sanz, Jorge Pérez-Aracil, Guido Ascenso, Javier Del Ser, David Casillas-Pérez, Christopher Kadow, Dušan Fister, David Barriopedro, Ricardo García-Herrera, Matteo Giuliani & Andrea Castelletti

 

Abstract

Atmospheric extreme events cause severe damage to human societies and ecosystems. The frequency and intensity of extremes and other associated events are continuously increasing due to climate change and global warming. The accurate prediction, characterization, and attribution of atmospheric extreme events is, therefore, a key research field in which many groups are currently working by applying different methodologies and computational tools. Machine learning and deep learning methods have arisen in the last years as powerful techniques to tackle many of the problems related to atmospheric extreme events. This paper reviews machine learning and deep learning approaches applied to the analysis, characterization, prediction, and attribution of the most important atmospheric extremes. A summary of the most used machine learning and deep learning techniques in this area, and a comprehensive critical review of literature related to ML in EEs, are provided. The critical literature review has been extended to extreme events related to rainfall and floods, heatwaves and extreme temperatures, droughts, severe weather events and fog, and low-visibility episodes. A case study focused on the analysis of extreme atmospheric temperature prediction with ML and DL techniques is also presented in the paper. Conclusions, perspectives, and outlooks on the field are finally drawn.

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Sušan Fister, Jorge Pérez-Aracil, César Peláez-Rodríguez, Javier Del Ser, Sancho Salcedo-Sanz (2022) Journal of Advances in Modelling Earth Systems

 

Abstract

In this paper three customised Artificial Intelligence (AI) frameworks, considering Deep Learning (convolutional neural networks), Machine Learning algorithms and data reduction techniques are proposed, for a problem of long-term summer air temperature prediction. Specifically, the prediction of average air temperature in the first and second August fortnights, using input data from previous months, at two different locations, Paris (France) and Córdoba (Spain), is considered. The target variable, mainly in the first August fortnight, can contain signals of extreme events such as heatwaves, like the mega-heatwave of 2003, which affected France and the Iberian Peninsula. Thus, an accurate prediction of long-term air temperature may be valuable also for different problems related to climate change, such as attribution of extreme events, and in other problems related to renewable energy. The analysis carried out this work is based on Reanalysis data, which are first processed by a correlation analysis among different prediction variables and the target (average air temperature in August first and second fortnights). An area with the largest correlation is located, and the variables within, after a feature selection process, are the input of different deep learning and ML algorithms. The experiments carried out show a very good prediction skill in the three proposed AI frameworks, both in Paris and Córdoba regions.

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C. Peláez-Rodríguez, J. Pérez-Aracil, D. Fister, L. Prieto-Godino, R.C. Deo, S. Salcedo-Sanz (2022) Renewable Energy

 

Abstract

A novel method for prediction of the extreme wind speed events based on a Hierarchical Classification/Regression (HCR) approach is proposed. The idea is to improve the prediction skills of different Machine Learning approaches on extreme wind speed events, while preserving the prediction performance for steady events. The proposed HCR architecture rests on three distinctive levels: first, a data preprocessing level, where training data are divided into clusters and accordingly associated labels. At this point, balancing techniques are applied to increase the significance of clusters with poorly represented wind gusts data. At a second level of the architecture, the classification of each sample into the corresponding cluster is carried out. Finally, once we have determined the cluster a sample belongs to, the third level carries out the prediction of the wind speed value, by using the regression model associated with that particular cluster. The performance of the proposed HCR approach has been tested in a real database of hourly wind speed values in Spain, considering Reanalysis data as predictive variables. The results obtained have shown excellent prediction skill in the forecasting of extreme events, achieving a 96% extremes detection, while maintaining a reasonable performance in the non-extreme samples. The performance of the methods has also been assessed using forecast data (GFS) as predictors.

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Antara Dasgupta, Louise Arnal, Rebecca Emerton, Shaun Harrigan, Gwyneth Matthews, Ameer Muhammad, Karen O’Regan, Teresa Pérez-Ciria, Emixi Valdez, Bart van Osnabrugge, Micha Werner, Carlo Buontempo, Hannah Cloke, Florian Pappenberger, Ilias G. Pechlivanidis, Christel Prudhomme, Maria-Helena Ramos, Peter Salamon, (2022) Journal of flood risk management

 

Abstract

The unprecedented progress in ensemble hydro-meteorological modelling and forecasting on a range of temporal and spatial scales, raises a variety of new challenges which formed the theme of the Joint Virtual Workshop, ‘Connecting global to local hydrological modelling and forecasting: challenges and scientific advances’. Held from 29 June to 1 July 2021, this workshop was co-organised by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the Copernicus Emergency Management (CEMS) and Climate Change (C3S) Services, the Hydrological Ensemble Prediction EXperiment (HEPEX), and the Global Flood Partnership (GFP). This article aims to summarise the state-of-the-art presented at the workshop and provide an early career perspective. Recent advances in hydrological modelling and forecasting, reflections on the use of forecasts for decision-making across scales, and means to minimise new barriers to communication in the virtual format are also discussed. Thematic foci of the workshop included hydrological model development and skill assessment, uncertainty communication, forecasts for early action, co-production of services and incorporation of local knowledge, Earth observation, and data assimilation. Connecting hydrological services to societal needs and local decision-making through effective communication, capacity-building and co-production was identified as critical. Multidisciplinary collaborations emerged as crucial to effectively bring newly developed tools to practice.

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Antonio Manuel Gómez-Orellana, David Guijo-Rubio, Jorge Pérez-Aracil, Pedro Antonio Gutiérrez, Sancho Salcedo-Sanz, César Hervás-Martínez, (2022) Atmospheric research

 

Abstract

In this paper we have tackled the problem of long-term air temperature prediction with eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) models. Specifically, we have evaluated the performance of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) architecture with sigmoidal neurons in the hidden layer, trained by means of an evolutionary algorithm (Evolutionary ANNs, EANNs). This XAI model architecture (XAI-EANN) has been applied to the long-term air temperature prediction at different sub-regions of the South of the Iberian Peninsula. In this case, the average August air temperature has been predicted from ERA5 Reanalysis data variables, obtaining good predictions skills and explainable models in terms of the input climatological variables considered. A cluster analysis has been first carried out in terms of the average air temperature in the zone, in such a way that a number of sub-regions with different air temperature behaviour have been defined. The proposed XAI-EANN model architecture has been applied to each of the defined sub-regions, in order to find significant differences among them, which can be explained with the XAI-EANN models obtained. Finally, a comprehensive comparison against some state-of-the-art techniques has also been carried out, concluding that there are statistically significant differences in terms of accuracy in favour of the proposed XAI-EANN model, which also benefits from being an XAI model.

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N. Hempelmann, C. Ehbrecht, E. Plesiat, G. Hobona, J. Simoes, D. Huard, T. J. Smith, U. S. McKnight, I. G. Pechlivanidis, and C. Alvarez-Castro (2022) Journal of  ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing

 

Abstract

Recent advances in modelling capabilities and data processing combined with vastly improved observation tools and networks have resulted in the expansion of available weather and climate information, from historical observations to seasonal climate forecasts, as well as decadal climate predictions and multi-decadal climate change projections. However, it remains a key challenge to ensure this information reaches the intended climate-sensitive sectors (e.g. water, energy, agriculture, health), and is fit-for-purpose to guarantee the usability of climate information for these downstream users. Climate information can be produced on demand via climate resilience information systems which are existing in various forms. To optimise the efficiency and establish better information exchange between these systems, standardisation is necessary. Here, standards and deployment options are described for how scientific methods can be be deployed in climate resilience information systems, respecting the principles of being findable, accessible, interoperable and reusable. Besides the general description of OGC-API Standards and OGC-API Processes based on existing building blocks, ongoing developments in AI-enhanced services for climate services are described.

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D2.1 – Review of ML algorithms for climate science

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D9.2 – Communication and Dissemination Plan

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D9.4 – Communication and Dissemination Plan – First Update

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Extreme Events in Climate Resilience Information Systems architecture with AI

 

This is the first draft of the architecture of the prototype for Climate Resilience Information Systems, providing technical services to detect extreme events. The deployed application packages are running with AI components. The workflow on setting up a climate application package and deploying it into the architecture.

The entire architecture follows the FAIR principles to ensure interoperability with, for example, the COPERNICUS Climate Data Store (CDS) providing technical services for the Copernicus Climate Change Services (C3S). The sections are instructions, guidelines and backgrounds around OGC API based software which can be used to set up Climate Resilience Information Systems (CRIS).

The areas use the climate application package with the ‘inpainting process’, named Duck, as an example to guide through the different steps necessary to set up application packages for technical climate services.

The backend is deployed at the Climate Computing Center (DKRZ) running as a DEMO portal.

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